Hidden Talent

Wednesday, March 6, 2019

DRAFT THOUGHTS: "I TOLD YOU SO" QB's

It is a very interesting phenomenon... a kind of eerie feeling to see the media coverage of the quarterbacks that are projected to go high in the NFL draft -- especially after having done a bit of research into the quality of this year's QB class... and to see that the ratings don't really mention any of the quarterbacks that you've listed as top tier.

So, I figured that it would make sense to write this post, to kind of memorialize my thoughts on which QBs I would take if i was a GM, and, I guess, accordingly, which quarterbacks I believe would have the highest upside if given the chance. And let me mention, at the outset, that my review is based off of film study that is capturing two important, maybe equally important (but I think one is more important than the other), qualities you would want to see in a QB that looks to succeed on the next level. Those are, number one, football smarts and, two, production to go along with it. The first is primary, but, as we can all appreciate, you can be the smartest tool in the shed, but if you can't produce -- especially on the college level -- it's hard to see how you would be successful in the NFL.

And so I've rated the quarterbacks that people have considered to be the top 25/30 quarterbacks in this year's draft class. I've also included in that list a number of quarterbacks who perform well on the measure of QBR. With all of these QBs, I've gone back to look at the tape: I've sifted through a number of cutups, full game tape, and post-game interviews, to evaluate each on the measures of production and football smarts. This is the list I've come up with.

1. Will Grier
2. Ryan Finley
3. Marcus McMaryion (value pick)

Number one on that list is Will Grier out of West Virginia. Grier originally played his freshman season at the University of Florida and had some success that first season. But because of a number of off the field issues (read: failed drug test for PEDs) he eventually transferred to West Virginia. At West Virginia Grier was highly productive and carried himself like a professional. From my review, he is, by far, the number one rated quarterback on both measures. That goes, particularly, for football smarts. I think it'd be a mistake to pass him up.

The number two rated quarterback I reviewed was Ryan Finley from NC State. Now, I want to note that I think there is a significant drop off between he and Will Grier in the number one and two spots, respectively. But Finley's story is similar to Grier's in that he began his college career at one university (Boise State), but ended up transferring and producing on a high level at another (NC State). He, again, is up there when you consider the factor of football smarts.

There are a few others that I won't necessarily highlight here. But I did want to highlight this name that not a lot of people have mentioned in the conversation: Marcus McMaryion. Here's a guy that not a lot of folks are talking about, but could be a significant steal in the later rounds (think Dak Prescott style steal). McMaryion played his junior and senior year at Fresno State. If you look at his TD to INT ratio, you'll notice that he was pretty efficient with his passing. If you watch a bit of his film -- including post-game interviews and game tape -- you'll see that he's somebody who would be capable of coming in, learning an NFL playbook, and competing for a spot on the roster (if not more).

But those are three names that I think are not getting the due that their talents deserve. And, if I was a GM, I would give these guys an opportunity to come into camp to prove what they've got. If I needed a QB, I would select Grier either first or second round -- maybe second round, simply for the value proposition because he's been so underrated in the evaluation process.

As a side note, I'd like to mention that this review is not necessarily an indictment against the two quarterbacks that have dominated the news coverage this draft season: Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins. In fact, Murray is an alum of my high school, Allen, TX. The issue I've had with reviewing their production is that you usually like to see at least two years of production from a prospect coming out of college, and that works against the favor of both Haskins and Murray. Both of them, as you likely already know, did what they did in one year and sort of rose up the ranks as the year progressed. As far as football smarts go, I didn't notice anything glaring against either, but I also wasn't "wowed" by any of them either.

Not every QB in the draft can be a hit. The ones I've listed above, if given the chance, have the best shot at surprising and validating the GM that chooses them. Maybe I've got something going here, and maybe I don't. But I wanted to at least memorialize these thoughts before the draft. Not to say I told you so, but to say, "I told you so."